Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reach $100,000 and Beyond?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been making waves in the cryptocurrency market, with its price potentially reclaiming $100,000 as support and rallying toward $107,000 in the coming days. This prediction is driven by a combination of supportive technical and fundamental metrics. In this article, we will delve into the key takeaways, technical analysis, and macro signals that suggest a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
The key takeaways from the current market analysis include:
- Bitcoin’s breakout is gaining traction, backed by bullish technicals and fading selling pressure.
- Macro signals lean bullish, with liquidity expansion and divergence between BTC and gold.
Technical Analysis: Ascending Triangle and Bull Cross
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and shifted into a textbook post-breakout retest phase. After pushing above the pattern’s upper boundary near $95,000, BTC pulled back to retest the former resistance as support before bouncing higher. This move is typically associated with valid breakouts rather than false moves.
Holding this reclaimed level keeps the “real breakout” structure intact and preserves the pattern’s measured upside objective near $107,000, derived by adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point, by February.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily chart approached a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs). The last time BTC printed a similar bull cross, the BTC price advanced by roughly 17% over the following month, strengthening the case for trend continuation if the signal is confirmed.
Reduced Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders
Bitcoin’s breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to fade. Data tracking UTXOs spent by OG Bitcoin holders, coins dormant for more than five years, showed that distribution into recent local tops had slowed materially.
As of January, the 90-day average of spent outputs peaked near 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle but later declined toward the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins hitting the market.
STXO from OG Bitcoin holders (>5y). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier in the rally, OG selling had surged to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by spot ETF demand, deeper liquidity, and institutional participation.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling,” said analyst DarkFrost, adding: “Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution.”
The slowdown in OG selling also aligned with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
BTC net transfer volume from/to exchanges. Source: Glassnode
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: A Bullish Sign for BTC?
Another macro signal aligned with the breakout thesis came from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold. In past instances where BTC’s correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
As of 2026, the setup appeared more favorable, supported by rising global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
Related: Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
